RotoBuzz -- Fantasy Football

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Last Minute Looks for Week 13

Whether it's the first round of your playoffs or you're trying to get in on the post-season action, a win this week is crucial for most. It's when your studs need to be studs and you have to make sure you're making the right choices at the other positions. Sometimes you're playing the matchups and sometimes you're following your gut. How you go about the process is up to you; just make sure you get the win. Here's what the NFL's Week 13 looks like to me. Good luck.

Arizona @ St. Louis

This one's got shootout all over it. However, it's not without it's question marks. Just how bad are Marc Bulger's ribs? Will the Arizona O-line ever give Edge a chance to regain his old form?Nothing we haven't dealt with before, but not with so much potentially at stake. The Rams have followed through with their committment to getting Steven Jackson more involved in the offense, and therefore can be expected to have atleast a solid first half, if not the full game. I say start all the usual suspects: Matt Leinart and Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Jeff Wilkins and Neil Rackers. Probably even Isaac Bruce. Maybe even Kevin Curtis. I left off Edge, you say? Yes. His days of being an elite back are far behind him and if the Rams, with a more balanced offense, jump out front, then the Cards will abandon the run and send Leinart onto the field with the sole purpose of airing it out. Points galore here for everyone else. Don't be left out.

Atlanta @ Washington

Here are two teams moving in opposite directions -- we've all seen this before in previous weeks. Despite the major injuries, the Redskins are playing all out and the Falcons are being misled by Michael Vick. Does it continue? Probably not. While there have been some questions about the declining Atlanta run defense (11 rushing TDs allowed but still ranks 9th overall), I don't think perennial backup Ladell Betts is going to give them too much trouble. That should force rookie Jason Campell to the air for most of the day and the rookie magic is bound to wear off. The Falcons, who despite some reports aren't quitting on the season, are fully expected to take advantage of Campbell's greenness and should hold the rookie down for the afternoon. On the other side, Michael Vick will do everything in his power to shake off the past few weeks and try to make it up to his fans that were victimized by the original "dirty bird". Expect a decent day from Vick and Warrick Dunn and make sure that Alge Crumpler and even Michael Jenkins are in your active lineups.

Detroit @ New England

If the Lions thought they had it bad over Thanksgiving, wait til they get into Foxboro. On a good note for them, they will have Kevin Jones back, although probably not at 100%. Depending on how well his ankle holds up, his presence alone should keep the Pats' defense honest enough to free up some passing lanes for Jon Kitna. Roy Williams should have another solid week, but the rest of the wideouts could be suspect due to the new found love Mike Williams has been getting. Supposedly he will play a bigger role this week. Hmmm. We'll see about that. For the Pats, Tom Brady should have no trouble as the tandem of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should carve up the defensive line enough to open up the offense. Tight end Ben Watson has become the favored target as most expected at the start of the season, but Chad Jackson and Reche Caldwell should see a decent number of looks as well.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

When these two met in Week 5, it was supposed to be a blowout. Well, the Titans played them tough and a 14-13 Colts victory was hardly the massacre we all expected. Well now here we are two months later and these Titans have grown even more. Last week's victory against the Giants may have given Vince Young his NFL swagger that most were waiting on. With the Colts able to always put points on the board, you have to expect Young to start reaching out for Drew Bennett and Bo Scaife more and more in the second half. In the first half, they're going to do their best to have Travis Henry blow open that weak Colts' run defense. For how long, is the real question. For Indy, we should see more of rookie Joe Addai -- not the 4 TDs we saw last week, but he'll definitely get a solid number of touches. That should obviously open it up for Peyton Manning to work his magic. Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrsion, and probably new first string TE Ben Utecht should all have solid days. The Colts know they were almost embarrassed the last time. Don't expect it to happen again.

Kansas City @ Cleveland

The Browns were supposed to put up a big game against the Bengals last week and they fell flat on their faces. Now they have to try and make it up against the Chiefs? Tall order there. The Chiefs will, as always, lean on Larry Johnson and watch him run wild on the Browns poor run defense. You can probably expect more of the same from Johnson, so multiple TDs and 100+ yards are definitely in your fantasy future. With any luck, that will enable Trent Green to get that break out game he so desperately needs, so expect him to look for Tony Gonzalez and Eddie Kennison as often as he can. For the Browns, well, they run the risk of being shut out in consecutive weeks. Reuben Droughns has proven to be worthless and the team will lean more on Jason Wright; not the starting point for a successful day. The Charlie Frye/Braylon Edwards feud seems to have softened, but we'll see how that translates onto the field. Maybe that means more looks for Kellen Winslow, but without Edwards, this offense is dead in the water. Maybe Mother Nature will stick her two cents in and help the Browns, but who wants to rely on that?

Minnesota @ Chicago

One of the worst offenses against on eof the best defenses. Hmmm. I wonder what's happening here? The only thing the Vikings have going for them righ tnow is their run defense which means a tough day for Thomas Jones and his non-best friend Cedric Benson. That means Rex Grossman is at a crossroads here. It's been a tale of two Rexes here, so which one is showing up? Home field is definitely not a gimme here, so expect Grossman to lean heavily on Desmond Clark and Mushin Muhammed (who is definitely a better possession receiver than Bernard Berrian). Robbie Gould should fare pretty well. For the Vikes on offense, well...I don't know. Chester Taylor is going to have a hard time running between the tackles and could be in for a long day. Brad Johnson really doesn't have many options, so the only Viking I would consider starting this week is kicker Ryan Longwell.

NY Jets @ Green Bay

I always try to take off my Jets hat when I write about these guys, but it's difficult when your team has won 6 times as many games as you thought they were going to win at this point. Even if I take off my Jets hat, my Man-genius t-shirt is still on. He's got these boys playing some solid ball, but the ground game is making me nervous. Cedric Houston? Really? Where's that Leon Washington magic? The running game was never spectacular to begin with, but to add in a guy who's been inactive for most of the time seems strange. I have a feeling it's going to be a lot of Chad Pennington, Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. Maybe a Chris Baker sleeper pick here. For the Pack, you'd have to be crazy to not start Ahman Green against such a suspect run defense. He should fare very well which should free up Brett Favre to find Donald Driver down field a few times. Greg Jennings may even get a chance to return to his early season form.

San Diego @ Buffalo

Hmmm. Let's see how this one is gonna play out. J.P. Losman hits Lee Evans for an early TD strike? Maybe two? The Chargers have some trouble getting going on the road in the first half? LaDanian Tomlinson takes over the game, rushes for 100+ yards and grabs 2 or 3 TDs? The Chargers win? Um, yeah. That sounds about right. The formula has worked thus far and I don't really see San Diego deviating from the plan this week. Phillip Rivers will get his throws to Antonio Gates, maybe hit Malcom Floyd or Vincent Jackson here or there, but if the weather is rough, LTD will lead the charge. For the Bills, they're probably going to have to lean on Losman as Willis McGahee will have a tough time finding the running room against a strong Charger defense.

San Francisco @ New Orleans

This was a tough game for me to call this week. I took the Saints, but that Niners defense is solid and highly underrated. Drew Brees has been a monster of a fantasy quarterback this season, but there are some question marks surrounding his receivers. Marques Colston and Joe Horn are game time decisions (Colton is probably out; Horn should play) which means that there's a little more leaning on guys like Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper. Because of that, I'm looking for more out of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush this week. On the other side, the Saints have given up their fair share of points, so expect decent days out of Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant. Is it enough to keep up with the high scoring Saints? Probably not. If I didn't already have Jeff Wilkins in my starting lineup, I would most definitely have Joe Nedney active for me.

Houston @ Oakland

A couple of bottom feeders here, but there could be som edecent fantasy points to be found. The Texans defense is pretty weak so this might be the game Aaron Brooks needs to build some confidence. It also helps that Randy Moss has finally shut up. Now let's see how well he plays. The running game shoul dbe decent this week. Justin Vargas should find the holes to get going and Zack Crockett should be able to punch them in when they get close to the goal line. For the Texans, it's getting a bit confusing. David Carr faces one of the top passing defenses so he may been in for a rough one. He should still find Andre Johnson for a few good strikes, but not enough to lean on. The running game for Houston is problematic once again. Word out of Texas has Wali Lundy taking a seat this week in favor of Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado? Now there's threee names I'm nowhere near putting my fantasy trust in. Finally, a team Art Shell can successfully bully.

Jacksonville @ Miami

I said it last week and it is definitely worth repeating as you're setting your lineups. The Jaguars are an enigma wrapped in a mystery and surrounded by questions. There's really no telling which team will show up, but with the Fins defense being so strong, I can't recommend using your Jags this week. Dave Garrard could look good, but how successful can he be with Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams dropping passes at such an alarming rate? The running back tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will have some difficulties and then there's the question of who's going to get the scores. If i had to pick, it would be Taylor, but I wouldn't be counting on much. For Miami, it should be a good test for Joey Harrington. The Jags D has shown some great things this year and their run D should be solid against Sammy Morris (who replaces the injured Ronnie Brown). That leaves the burden on Harrington. The Jags have a great passing D as well, so look for more short work to Randy McMichael and Chris Chambers. While I don't see Marty Booker having a repeat performance this week, I think the short passes favor Wes Welker as a good possession receiver and red zone target.

Dallas @ NY Giants

A battle for the NFC East and once again two teams moving in opposite directions. The Tony Romo hype is big and people are expecting another Thanksgiving like performance against a banged up and troubled Giants team. Terrell Owens should always be counted on as he and Romo are now BFF and it looks like Terry Glenn has finally been invited into the inner circle. With the Giants getting back Sam Madison to cover the deeper plays, look for the Cowboys to utilize Jason Witten a little more in the passing game. As for the running game, it's a back-by-committee here between Marion Barber and Julius Jones. With Osi Umenyori back on the d-line for Big Blue it could be a tough day for both, but I'd use Barber as a flex player. For the Giants on offense, they're in troubled waters here. Tom Coughlin is cracking on Eli Manning, Tiki Barber is cracking on Tom Coughlin, Michael Strahan is calling Plaxico Burress a quitter and Plax is off railing T.O. and Roy Williams. It looks like Jeremy Shockey is the only focused skill player out there which could spell disaster. Of course, this is just the type of game the Giants end up winning before blowing the next two.

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh

This could be just what the doctor ordered for the defending Super Bowl champs. They're pretty much playing for pride here, so expect them to beat up on the lowly Bucs all afternoon. Willie Parker should break out this week after a tough one against the Ravens, but with Hines Ward out, Ben Roethlisberger will be relying more on Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and Cedrick Wilson. Holmes should be good for a score, but I think the red zone threat here will be tight end Heath Miller. For the Bucs, it looks like a rough day for Carnell Williams as the Steeler D will be pumped up in front of the home crowd. You might get away with a Bruce Gradkowski to Joey Galloway garbage TD, but that's probably about it. This has potential shutout written all over it.

Seattle @ Denver

Jay Cutler's coming out party!! I'm still trying to wrap my head around a 7-4 team changing quarterbacks with the playoffs still up for grabs, but we'll see. I know Jake Plummer has been suspect this year, but this is a big move. Cutler has a strong arm, so he shouldn't have trouble reaching Javon Walker and Rod Smith down field. The decision making is where the hot seat comes into play for the rookie. But while most of the pressure will be on Cutler, no doubt, many eyes will be on the backfield as apparently Tatum Bell is returning to join Mike Bell in the running game. We'll see how the turf toe reacts, but rumor has it that they will be splitting the carries all day. The Seahawks have some issues as Matt Hasselbeck will be starting, broken finger and all. He's got the weapons in Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch, but we'll have to wait and see on his accuracy; the finger could cause problems. The Broncos have one of the best rushing defenses in the league so this should be a nice test for Shaun Alexander. I see him doing pretty well, but I'm gonna jump on the Cutler bandwagon and watch the Broncos take over this game.

Carolina @ Philadelphia

A few weeks ago, this was probably looked at as a preview of the NFC Championship game. Instead, we're lookin gfor a possible re-emergence of Jake Delhomme and an Eagles team in desperate need as they continue to recover from the loss of Donovan McNabb. After watching the Colts run all over the Eagles last week, the Panthers have got to be salivating a little here. While DeShaun Foster expects to play, I see DeAngelo Williams getting most of the work and potentially having a breakout day. It doesn't hurt that the Eagles will have their hands full with Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, both of which should have good days. For Philly, all eyes are on Jeff Garcia who gets the start again. The team will lean heavily on Brian Westbrook again and hope to open things up a little more for Garcia. Tight end L.J. Smith could have another good week as Garcia dumps it over the middle to him. It's still too risky to start Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown, in my opinion. You're going to have to wait this one out and hope maybe one of them becomes a favorite.

So make your choices wisely and good luck this week.

What am I doing this week?

I'm going with Chad, LTD, Fast Willie, Glenn, Horn, Miller, Wilkins and the Chiefs D.

If I lose Horn at the last minute, it looks like a toss up between Stallworth and Bennett -- ironically leaning towards Bennett.

"Notables" on my bench: Vince, Stallworth, Nedney and the infamous Furrey 9

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