A Closer Look at Week 16
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The Ravens may have clinched their division, but home field advantage is still very much up for grabs in the AFC, so don't expect them to lie down for this one. Expect an old school smashmouth style game here between these two rivals. Both teams will try to establish a runnning game but don't set your expectations for Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis too high. Both defenses are solid against the run, both ranking in the top 5 in the league. The passing game should be interesting to watch. Steve McNair is back in action this week and should be looking for Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason downfield more than across the middle to the banged up Todd Heap. Ben Roethlisberger has Hines Ward back but we're still waiting to see someone really step up as the #2 guy. Toss it up between Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes as Cedrick Wilson and former TE standout Heath Miller have been disappointing this year. I think whoever wins the ground battle, wins the war.
Carolina @ Atlanta
If it wasn't for the sad mediocrity of the NFC, this game would have no playoff implications whatsoever. Instead, the winner here keeps themselves alive and the loser...well, they can still get some help. The Panthers are struggling right now and need a jump start on offense. Chris Weinke has not been able to take advantage of having Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson and the team has only put up 16 points in the last 2 games. Perhaps a shootout with the Falcons is just what they need. With neither team having that great of a running game (DeShaun Foster and Warrick Dunn don't exactly instill a lot of fear in defenses) look for a lot of quarterback action. Michael Vick will pick up the slack on the ground, but will look for Alge Crumpler and Michael Jenkins against a team that's given up 21 TDs through the air this season. In response, you can look for Weinke to repeat that week 14 400+ yard performance with a few red zone strikes to his eager receivers.
Chicago @ Detroit
Normally I would say that this is a tough one to call, but with Detroit really being that bad, I still don't see them beating a Bears squad that has already clinched a divisional title and home field throughout the playoffs. With Kevin Jones still out, the Lions are going with Arlen Harris and Aevion Cason and they've been as close to useless as you can get in a fantasy running back. The forever average Jon Kitna doesn't have much going on but he'll still be forced to air it out to Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as best as he can. For the Bears, Rex Grossman remains under center as he should be. If the team is looking to maintain their momentum in the playoffs, then Grossman needs to continue to play and stay sharp. He'll have the help of Bernard Berrian and Desmond Clark to keep those fantasy numbers up there. The one change you will see is in the Bears ground game. To keep him fresh for the playoffs, the team will likely cut down the workload of Thomas Jones and give the bulk of the carries to Cedric Benson. That doesn't bode well for Jones' owners, but if you have Benson, he could be a huge start for you this week.
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Colts are looking up at San Diego for home field and they're neck and neck with Baltimore for that #2 seed. Funny how a game against lowly Houston could be so important for the team. Peyton Manning should have a strong on ehere, probably locking up mostly with Reggie Wayne. Marvelous Marvin Harrison will play, but if you saw him last Monday, you'll see that that hand is still bothering him a little. Look for TE Ben Utecht to come up big as well. The ground assault will be led by Dominic Rhodes as Joe Addai is still questionable with the ankle sprain he suffered last week. For the Texans, I guess the guy to watch would be Ron Dayne. The Colts D still struggles big time against the run, and Dayne will do everything he can to expose its weaknesses. In the air, David Carr has been much less than spectacular lately, and will probably struggle again against the #2 pass defense in the NFL. Maybe Andre Johnson can come down with something at some point, but I wouldn't bet my fantasy championship on it.
New England @ Jacksonville
The Patriots can lock up the AFC East with a win, while the Jags need a win to keep themselves alive in the wild card hunt. Expect both teams to come out hard right from the start. Tom Brady will be able to show off his prowess as he goes again without his favorite target, Ben Watson. Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown could see some extensive looks. Also expect to see Brady get perennial backup Kevin Faulk in on the action again as he gets more time with Corey Dillon in the backfield while Laurence Maroney remains sidelined. It's still a tough Jags D, so don't expect anything crazy. For Jacksonville on offense, it's going to be a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. With Fred Taylor sidelined and Dave Garrard being so inconsistent, look for a game plan that keeps the focus on Jones-Drew both on the ground and in the air. Matt Jones may get a few looks here and there, but he's not someone I'm relying on. I don't see it being a barnburner, but I don't see it being too low scoring either. Brady and Jones-Drew should be the top point-getters.
New Orleans @ NY Giants
Now this one, on the other hand, has all the potential of being a huge barnburner. The high-flying Saints are looking to put last week's debacle behind them and will look to expose a very problematic New York secondary. The Giants hope to work some of their offensive magic into the game also and while the Saints have the #5 pass defense in the league, they've still given up 23 TDs via the pass this year. What does this mean for fantasy? It means get your damn starters in. Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress, Tiki Barber, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister...get them all in unless you have ridiculously better options. The Giants may be getting back DL Michael Strahan, but the team has been bad enough the past few weeks to counter any and all of his efforts.
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland
Now here you go. A game without a single playoff ramification. Two franchises looking at a top draft choice next year. But for this season, there's still a little fantasy hope. Inserting QB Tim Rattay into the Tampa lineup did wonders for them after being battered by Chicago last week. They even made a game out of it by forcing overtime. Now Rattay takes over from the start and the Bucs are hoping to put up some points agaisnt a weak Browns squad. Joey Galloway should have a great afternoon and I'll bet TE Alex Smith gets a few red zone looks as well. The ground game may be a little rough as Michael Pittman takes over for the injured Carnell Williams, but Pittman has surprised folks for a few years now. For Cleveland, it could be tough as they just don't have any sort of a ground game. Reuben Droughns and Jason Wright have been abyssmal, so expect Derek Anderson to look downfield a lot for Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, although Steve Heiden has been a favorite target as well. With Ronde Barber on Edwards for most of the day, Dennis Northcutt becomes an interesting sleeper.
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Whoa!! Where'd these Bills come from? People are still using the word 'playoffs' when speaking about this team. J.P. Losman seems to be getting better and better and the trio of Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Peerless Price gives them depth at WR and numerous options. Willis McGahee is trying to make something out of this year and a mediocre Titans run D could help the cause. For the Titans, it's going to be interesting to see how the offense rebounds from last week's disappointment. Vince Young couldn't get things going and the pass defense had to bail them out. It's a tough task for Young as his wideouts are achey and Travis Henry is banged up. Look for him to try and make it happen himself on the ground, but still find a few strikes to Brandon Marshall and, if he plays, Bo Scaife.
Washington @ St. Louis
Another game with little or no playoff implications, but possibly loaded with fantasy points. Redskins RB Ladell Betts has been fantastic since takin gover for Clinton Portis and he should attack the Rams D and their 31st ranked run D pretty strongly. I see another 100+ yard game for him. QB Jason Campbell seemed to be doing a little better last week and hopefully will be able to continue hitting Santana Moss and Chris Cooley in this potential shootout. For the Rams, they've followed through with their plan and have turned Steven Jackson into quite the premium running back. He's been great for fantasy owners down the stretch and should continue that against the Skins, although they've only given up a league low 5 rushing TDs. He'll get his points on yardage though. The points from the Rams, this week, are coming from the air. Look for Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and even Isaac Bruce to take advantage of the Skins' poor pass defense that has allowed a league high 25 passing TDs.
Arizona @ San Francisco
This is a game I'd love to see in 3 years. They've both got some holes to contend with, but these are two of the most promising young offenses in the NFL. The Niners will concentrate on the ground this week, so look for another strong performance from Frank Gore. The passing attack took a hit when Antonio Bryant was suspended by the NFL for violating the league's substance abuse policy, so look for Alex Smith to reach out for Vernon Davis and Arnaz Battle this week. For the Cards, look for Matt Leinart to shine. The Niners pass D is very suspect and with weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, it's time for Leinart to step it up. Edgerrin James is coming off another solid performance so he will definitely take off some of the pressure. Joe Nedney and Neil Rackers should also be pretty busy. I see a high scoring ending here.
Cincinnati @ Denver
This is a must win for both teams if they want to make the playoffs. The Bengals need to rebound from last week's dismal showing against the Colts, if they want to win and are getting a nice spark at just the right time. Carson Palmer couldn't be happier with the return of OL Levi Jones and should get a little more worry-free time to stay in the pocket this week. Look for T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson to come up big this week, and maybe even a little "something something" from Chris Henry. Rudi Johnson should find it a little tough on the ground against the staunch Broncos D. On offense for Denver, it's going to be a nice test for Jay Cutler. The Bengals D, outside of last week, has made strong improvements and should make it tough for Cutler all day. Javon Walker should fare pretty well, but my sleeper this week is rookie TE Tony Scheffler. Cutler has the confidence in him and they've hooked up well before. Toss a friggin coin to see which RB shows up though. Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, jeez!! Who knows at this point?
San Diego @ Seattle
What better way to lock up home field advantage than to pile on more TDs for your record in front of the guy whose record was broken after just one year? LaDanian Tomlinson is a beast and he's going to continue to add to his totals this week. The Chargers want the win, so don't expect LTD to sit while the game is close. Expect yet another 100+ yard performance with a couple of touchdowns again. Hell, he'll probably throw one too. Phillip Rivers should also have another solid game as he tunes up for the palyoffs and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits there. The WR area is still a little sketchy, but expect Vincent Jackson and Keenan McCardell to get a few looks as well. For the Seahawks, it could be a rough day agains ta fired up Chargers defense. Shaun Alexander will find running room scarce and Matt Hasselbeck will have to deal with an outstanding pass rush. Still, I see Alexander maybe grabbing a score and perhaps a strike to Jerramy Stevens. Maybe even Deion Branch, but again, i'm not betting a championship on it.
Philadelphia @ Dallas
The Cowboys have already locked up a playoff berth, but a win this week gives them the divisional title and strong hopes for that #2 seed in the playoffs. Expect a usual Parcells type of attack as both Marion Barber and Julius Jones should get a large amount of work. Once again, I see Barber as the stroger option. Tony Romo will have ample opportunity to air it out, and if Terrell Owens has anything to say (and he usually does) he'll get the majority of looks as he tries to show up the Eagles this time around. I don't see Philly allowing too much of T.O., so expect to see Jason Witten and Terry Glenn get in on the action. The Jeff Garcia-led Eagles are also in the thick of the playoff race, so expect them to come out hard from the onset. Brian Westbrook has been solid as of late, and L.J. Smith has seen a nice resurgance as well. If only Garcia can get Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth involved a little more, they could have a shot here after all.
NY Jets @ Miami
Saving the best for last here, huh? My Jets are 8-6 and have a shot (although they need some help) at making the playoffs here in Man-genius' first year as head coach. The Miami D is tough, but both teams always seem to step it up for this rivalry. Basically, don't expect Jason Taylor to run the show here. Chad Pennington should have a decent day and Laveraneus Coles (and all his bulletin board fodder) and Jerricho Cotchery should reap the benefits. The ground game will switch back to the Kevan Barlow-Leon Washington tandem while Cedric Houston sits due to injury. I expect Barlow to steal the 3rd down and goal line carries for Gang Green. For the Fins, it's about pride now. They were mathematically eliminated last week, but still want to go out with a bang. Word out of Miami has Ronnie Brown playing, but only to spell Sammy Morris, who should have the stronger game against the subpar Jets run D. Now since I'm not too sold on Morris, I'm going to have to assume that Joey Harrington is going to be looking for Randy McMichael and Chris Chambers a lot downfield. Former favorite Marty Booker is out again this week. I'm looking for a big Jets win here!!!
Good luck to you all this weekend and have a wonderful holiday!!!!
Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, whatever it is you're celebrating -- make it fun...and safe!
The Ravens may have clinched their division, but home field advantage is still very much up for grabs in the AFC, so don't expect them to lie down for this one. Expect an old school smashmouth style game here between these two rivals. Both teams will try to establish a runnning game but don't set your expectations for Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis too high. Both defenses are solid against the run, both ranking in the top 5 in the league. The passing game should be interesting to watch. Steve McNair is back in action this week and should be looking for Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason downfield more than across the middle to the banged up Todd Heap. Ben Roethlisberger has Hines Ward back but we're still waiting to see someone really step up as the #2 guy. Toss it up between Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes as Cedrick Wilson and former TE standout Heath Miller have been disappointing this year. I think whoever wins the ground battle, wins the war.
Carolina @ Atlanta
If it wasn't for the sad mediocrity of the NFC, this game would have no playoff implications whatsoever. Instead, the winner here keeps themselves alive and the loser...well, they can still get some help. The Panthers are struggling right now and need a jump start on offense. Chris Weinke has not been able to take advantage of having Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson and the team has only put up 16 points in the last 2 games. Perhaps a shootout with the Falcons is just what they need. With neither team having that great of a running game (DeShaun Foster and Warrick Dunn don't exactly instill a lot of fear in defenses) look for a lot of quarterback action. Michael Vick will pick up the slack on the ground, but will look for Alge Crumpler and Michael Jenkins against a team that's given up 21 TDs through the air this season. In response, you can look for Weinke to repeat that week 14 400+ yard performance with a few red zone strikes to his eager receivers.
Chicago @ Detroit
Normally I would say that this is a tough one to call, but with Detroit really being that bad, I still don't see them beating a Bears squad that has already clinched a divisional title and home field throughout the playoffs. With Kevin Jones still out, the Lions are going with Arlen Harris and Aevion Cason and they've been as close to useless as you can get in a fantasy running back. The forever average Jon Kitna doesn't have much going on but he'll still be forced to air it out to Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as best as he can. For the Bears, Rex Grossman remains under center as he should be. If the team is looking to maintain their momentum in the playoffs, then Grossman needs to continue to play and stay sharp. He'll have the help of Bernard Berrian and Desmond Clark to keep those fantasy numbers up there. The one change you will see is in the Bears ground game. To keep him fresh for the playoffs, the team will likely cut down the workload of Thomas Jones and give the bulk of the carries to Cedric Benson. That doesn't bode well for Jones' owners, but if you have Benson, he could be a huge start for you this week.
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Colts are looking up at San Diego for home field and they're neck and neck with Baltimore for that #2 seed. Funny how a game against lowly Houston could be so important for the team. Peyton Manning should have a strong on ehere, probably locking up mostly with Reggie Wayne. Marvelous Marvin Harrison will play, but if you saw him last Monday, you'll see that that hand is still bothering him a little. Look for TE Ben Utecht to come up big as well. The ground assault will be led by Dominic Rhodes as Joe Addai is still questionable with the ankle sprain he suffered last week. For the Texans, I guess the guy to watch would be Ron Dayne. The Colts D still struggles big time against the run, and Dayne will do everything he can to expose its weaknesses. In the air, David Carr has been much less than spectacular lately, and will probably struggle again against the #2 pass defense in the NFL. Maybe Andre Johnson can come down with something at some point, but I wouldn't bet my fantasy championship on it.
New England @ Jacksonville
The Patriots can lock up the AFC East with a win, while the Jags need a win to keep themselves alive in the wild card hunt. Expect both teams to come out hard right from the start. Tom Brady will be able to show off his prowess as he goes again without his favorite target, Ben Watson. Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown could see some extensive looks. Also expect to see Brady get perennial backup Kevin Faulk in on the action again as he gets more time with Corey Dillon in the backfield while Laurence Maroney remains sidelined. It's still a tough Jags D, so don't expect anything crazy. For Jacksonville on offense, it's going to be a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. With Fred Taylor sidelined and Dave Garrard being so inconsistent, look for a game plan that keeps the focus on Jones-Drew both on the ground and in the air. Matt Jones may get a few looks here and there, but he's not someone I'm relying on. I don't see it being a barnburner, but I don't see it being too low scoring either. Brady and Jones-Drew should be the top point-getters.
New Orleans @ NY Giants
Now this one, on the other hand, has all the potential of being a huge barnburner. The high-flying Saints are looking to put last week's debacle behind them and will look to expose a very problematic New York secondary. The Giants hope to work some of their offensive magic into the game also and while the Saints have the #5 pass defense in the league, they've still given up 23 TDs via the pass this year. What does this mean for fantasy? It means get your damn starters in. Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress, Tiki Barber, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister...get them all in unless you have ridiculously better options. The Giants may be getting back DL Michael Strahan, but the team has been bad enough the past few weeks to counter any and all of his efforts.
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland
Now here you go. A game without a single playoff ramification. Two franchises looking at a top draft choice next year. But for this season, there's still a little fantasy hope. Inserting QB Tim Rattay into the Tampa lineup did wonders for them after being battered by Chicago last week. They even made a game out of it by forcing overtime. Now Rattay takes over from the start and the Bucs are hoping to put up some points agaisnt a weak Browns squad. Joey Galloway should have a great afternoon and I'll bet TE Alex Smith gets a few red zone looks as well. The ground game may be a little rough as Michael Pittman takes over for the injured Carnell Williams, but Pittman has surprised folks for a few years now. For Cleveland, it could be tough as they just don't have any sort of a ground game. Reuben Droughns and Jason Wright have been abyssmal, so expect Derek Anderson to look downfield a lot for Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, although Steve Heiden has been a favorite target as well. With Ronde Barber on Edwards for most of the day, Dennis Northcutt becomes an interesting sleeper.
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Whoa!! Where'd these Bills come from? People are still using the word 'playoffs' when speaking about this team. J.P. Losman seems to be getting better and better and the trio of Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Peerless Price gives them depth at WR and numerous options. Willis McGahee is trying to make something out of this year and a mediocre Titans run D could help the cause. For the Titans, it's going to be interesting to see how the offense rebounds from last week's disappointment. Vince Young couldn't get things going and the pass defense had to bail them out. It's a tough task for Young as his wideouts are achey and Travis Henry is banged up. Look for him to try and make it happen himself on the ground, but still find a few strikes to Brandon Marshall and, if he plays, Bo Scaife.
Washington @ St. Louis
Another game with little or no playoff implications, but possibly loaded with fantasy points. Redskins RB Ladell Betts has been fantastic since takin gover for Clinton Portis and he should attack the Rams D and their 31st ranked run D pretty strongly. I see another 100+ yard game for him. QB Jason Campbell seemed to be doing a little better last week and hopefully will be able to continue hitting Santana Moss and Chris Cooley in this potential shootout. For the Rams, they've followed through with their plan and have turned Steven Jackson into quite the premium running back. He's been great for fantasy owners down the stretch and should continue that against the Skins, although they've only given up a league low 5 rushing TDs. He'll get his points on yardage though. The points from the Rams, this week, are coming from the air. Look for Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and even Isaac Bruce to take advantage of the Skins' poor pass defense that has allowed a league high 25 passing TDs.
Arizona @ San Francisco
This is a game I'd love to see in 3 years. They've both got some holes to contend with, but these are two of the most promising young offenses in the NFL. The Niners will concentrate on the ground this week, so look for another strong performance from Frank Gore. The passing attack took a hit when Antonio Bryant was suspended by the NFL for violating the league's substance abuse policy, so look for Alex Smith to reach out for Vernon Davis and Arnaz Battle this week. For the Cards, look for Matt Leinart to shine. The Niners pass D is very suspect and with weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, it's time for Leinart to step it up. Edgerrin James is coming off another solid performance so he will definitely take off some of the pressure. Joe Nedney and Neil Rackers should also be pretty busy. I see a high scoring ending here.
Cincinnati @ Denver
This is a must win for both teams if they want to make the playoffs. The Bengals need to rebound from last week's dismal showing against the Colts, if they want to win and are getting a nice spark at just the right time. Carson Palmer couldn't be happier with the return of OL Levi Jones and should get a little more worry-free time to stay in the pocket this week. Look for T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson to come up big this week, and maybe even a little "something something" from Chris Henry. Rudi Johnson should find it a little tough on the ground against the staunch Broncos D. On offense for Denver, it's going to be a nice test for Jay Cutler. The Bengals D, outside of last week, has made strong improvements and should make it tough for Cutler all day. Javon Walker should fare pretty well, but my sleeper this week is rookie TE Tony Scheffler. Cutler has the confidence in him and they've hooked up well before. Toss a friggin coin to see which RB shows up though. Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, jeez!! Who knows at this point?
San Diego @ Seattle
What better way to lock up home field advantage than to pile on more TDs for your record in front of the guy whose record was broken after just one year? LaDanian Tomlinson is a beast and he's going to continue to add to his totals this week. The Chargers want the win, so don't expect LTD to sit while the game is close. Expect yet another 100+ yard performance with a couple of touchdowns again. Hell, he'll probably throw one too. Phillip Rivers should also have another solid game as he tunes up for the palyoffs and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits there. The WR area is still a little sketchy, but expect Vincent Jackson and Keenan McCardell to get a few looks as well. For the Seahawks, it could be a rough day agains ta fired up Chargers defense. Shaun Alexander will find running room scarce and Matt Hasselbeck will have to deal with an outstanding pass rush. Still, I see Alexander maybe grabbing a score and perhaps a strike to Jerramy Stevens. Maybe even Deion Branch, but again, i'm not betting a championship on it.
Philadelphia @ Dallas
The Cowboys have already locked up a playoff berth, but a win this week gives them the divisional title and strong hopes for that #2 seed in the playoffs. Expect a usual Parcells type of attack as both Marion Barber and Julius Jones should get a large amount of work. Once again, I see Barber as the stroger option. Tony Romo will have ample opportunity to air it out, and if Terrell Owens has anything to say (and he usually does) he'll get the majority of looks as he tries to show up the Eagles this time around. I don't see Philly allowing too much of T.O., so expect to see Jason Witten and Terry Glenn get in on the action. The Jeff Garcia-led Eagles are also in the thick of the playoff race, so expect them to come out hard from the onset. Brian Westbrook has been solid as of late, and L.J. Smith has seen a nice resurgance as well. If only Garcia can get Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth involved a little more, they could have a shot here after all.
NY Jets @ Miami
Saving the best for last here, huh? My Jets are 8-6 and have a shot (although they need some help) at making the playoffs here in Man-genius' first year as head coach. The Miami D is tough, but both teams always seem to step it up for this rivalry. Basically, don't expect Jason Taylor to run the show here. Chad Pennington should have a decent day and Laveraneus Coles (and all his bulletin board fodder) and Jerricho Cotchery should reap the benefits. The ground game will switch back to the Kevan Barlow-Leon Washington tandem while Cedric Houston sits due to injury. I expect Barlow to steal the 3rd down and goal line carries for Gang Green. For the Fins, it's about pride now. They were mathematically eliminated last week, but still want to go out with a bang. Word out of Miami has Ronnie Brown playing, but only to spell Sammy Morris, who should have the stronger game against the subpar Jets run D. Now since I'm not too sold on Morris, I'm going to have to assume that Joey Harrington is going to be looking for Randy McMichael and Chris Chambers a lot downfield. Former favorite Marty Booker is out again this week. I'm looking for a big Jets win here!!!
Good luck to you all this weekend and have a wonderful holiday!!!!
Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, whatever it is you're celebrating -- make it fun...and safe!
posted by Howard Bender at
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